Why bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could plunge 75% — and still be in a bull market
It’s been a tough stretch for bitcoin investors. After toppling the $3,000 level last month, bitcoin has shed more than $600. For crypto rival ethereum, it’s been even uglier. The sudden reversal in the market has sparked yet another wave of doom and gloom regarding the future of cryptocurrencies.
But while those late to the party have, indeed, been slammed the past couple of weeks, long-term crypto holders don’t have much to complain about.
According to buy-side analyst Chris Burniske, bitcoin BTCUSD, +2.85% and the rest of crypto market could plunge 75% from these levels and still be in a bull market. That’s because such a decline would only bring the total market down to $15 billion in aggregate value.
If that number sounds familiar to crypto investors, it should. Back in 2013, when cryptos first took out that level, it became known as the “big bubble.”
“It was a high point for cryptoassets when many enthusiastically claimed we were already well on our way to the moon,” Burniske said. “The recent sentiment in the markets and surge of mainstream interest has been eerily similar to that time — crypto is cool again.”
He used this chart to illustrate his point:
As you can see by that chart, the bottom fell out from that high point and cryptoassets lost more than 75% of their value, “shaking out weak holders in the interim and deflating the spirits of many a basement millionaire,” Burniske said.
Three years later, cryptos would finally get back to — and surpass — that 2013 high, and it’s been a serious rocket ride since then, with the total market value reaching $115 billion by the end of June.
So why do we still care about the $15 billion level?
“Our last major all-time high on a long-term time horizon — long for crypto, at least — was $15 billion,” Burniske wrote. “We could fall all the way back to that aggregate network value. In fact, we could fall further, as following the definition of an uptrend we would just want to avoid falling below the previous low, which was around $4 billion. Does that happen? Probably not.”
But even if it did, he added, “we would still be in a bull market.”